ABSTRACT
Background While anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody kinetics have been well described in large populations of vaccinated individuals, we still poorly understand how they evolve during a natural infection and how this impacts viral clearance. Methods For that purpose, we analyzed the kinetics of both viral load and neutralizing antibody levels in a prospective cohort of individuals during acute infection by Alpha variant. Results Using a mathematical model, we show that the progressive increase in neutralizing antibodies leads to a shortening of the half-life of both infected cells and infectious viral particles. We estimated that the neutralizing activity reached 90% of its maximal level within 8 days after symptoms onset and could reduce the half-life of both infected cells and infectious virus by a 6-fold factor, thus playing a key role to achieve rapid viral clearance. Using this model, we conducted a simulation study to predict in a more general context the protection conferred by the existence of pre-existing neutralization, due to either vaccination or prior infection. We predicted that a neutralizing activity, as measured by ED50 >103, could reduce by 50% the risk of having viral load detectable by standard PCR assays and by 99% the risk of having viral load above the threshold of cultivable virus. Conclusions This threshold value for the neutralizing activity could be used to identify individuals with poor protection against disease acquisition.
Subject(s)
Acute DiseaseABSTRACT
The efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis by the Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab cocktail (AZD7442) was evaluated in hamsters against a clinical BA.1 strain of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron. AZD7442 retains inhibitory activity against Omicron despite a substantial loss of efficacy. We estimate that Omicron virus requires about 20-times more antibodies in plasma than the ancestral B.1 strain (G614) virus to achieve a similar drug efficacy in reducing lung infectious titers.
ABSTRACT
Despite several clinical studies, the antiviral efficacy of remdesivir in COVID-19 hospitalized patients remains controversial. We analyzed nasopharyngeal normalized viral loads collected in the 29 days following randomization from 665 hospitalized patients included in the DisCoVeRy trial, allocated to either standard of care (SoC, N=329) or SoC + remdesivir for 10 days (N=336). We used a mathematical model to reconstruct viral kinetic profiles and estimate the antiviral efficacy of remdesivir in reducing viral production. To identify factors associated with viral kinetics, additional analyses were conducted stratified either on time of treatment initiation ([≤] or > 7 days since symptom onset) or viral load at randomization (< or [≥] 3.5 log10 copies/104 cells). In our model, remdesivir reduced viral production by 2-fold on average (95%CI: 1.5-3.2). Using the estimated parameter of the model, simulations predict that remdesivir reduces time to viral clearance by 0.7 day compared to SoC, with large inter-individual variabilities (Inter-Quartile Range, IQR: 0.0-1.3 days). Exploratory analyses suggest that remdesivir had a larger impact in patients with a high viral load at randomization, reducing viral production by 5-fold on average (95%CI: 2.8-25), leading to a predicted median reduction in the time to viral clearance of 2.4 days (IQR: 0.9-4.5 days). In summary, our model shows that remdesivir reduces viral production from infected cells by a factor 2, leading to a median reduction of 0.7 days in the time to viral clearance compared to SoC. The efficacy was larger in patients with high level of viral load at treatment initiation. One sentence summaryRemdesivir reduces the time to SARS-CoV-2 clearance by 1 day in hospitalized patients, and up to 3 days in those with high viral load at admission.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Despite no or limited pre-clinical evidence, repurposed drugs are massively evaluated in clinical trials to palliate the lack of antiviral molecules against SARS-CoV-2. Here we used a Syrian hamster model to assess the antiviral efficacy of favipiravir, understand its mechanism of action and determine its pharmacokinetics. When treatment was initiated before or simultaneously to infection, favipiravir had a strong dose effect, leading to dramatic reduction of infectious titers in lungs and clinical alleviation of the disease. Antiviral effect of favipiravir correlated with incorporation of a large number of mutations into viral genomes and decrease of viral infectivity. The antiviral efficacy observed in this study was achieved with plasma drug exposure comparable with those previously found during human clinical trials and was associated with weight losses in animals. Thereby, pharmacokinetic and tolerance studies are required to determine whether similar effects can be safely achieved in humans.